Serie A Lazio vs Milan Spread and Prediction

The Serie A returns to action with a massive match-up on Sunday, when Lazio will play host to Milan. The two teams are sitting just one point apart in the standings and will be looking to restart their season on a positive note. Lazio were in really good shape before the international break and will be looking to pick up where they left off. Milan did not enter the break in the best possible way as they failed to win their last two matches.

Date/Time: 11-25-2018, 12:00 EST

Spread: Lazio -0.5

Total: 2.75 Goals

Lazio (7-4-1) were not very good in their last match before the international break, where they split the points on the road against Sassuolo. They actually made a great start in that match and took the lead at the 8th minute with Parolo. But their opponents were quick in their response and pulled even at the 15th. Lazio were pretty bad in the second half but successfully managed to avoid the loss. Prior to that they beat Marseille by 1-2 for the Europa League and grabbed a ticket to the next round of the competition. They were in great shape before the break, as they lost just one of their previous seven in all competitions (5-1-1). Lazio are now sitting at the 4th spot of the Serie A with 22 points, one ahead of Milan and three behind Inter Milan. They are already 12 points off league leaders Juventus but the title was never in Lazio’s targets. They have only lost to Inter Milan and Napoli in eight home matches in all competitions so far, winning the other six. Lazio have only kept a couple of clean sheets at home so far, with five of their matches featuring goals from both sides.

On the other hand, Milan (6-3-3) played a really tough match right before the break, where they lost by 2-0 at home against Juventus. Their opponents were much better throughout the whole match, and took an early lead at the 8th minute with Mandzukic. Higuain missed a chance to pull even when he missed a penalty kick against his former team at the 41st minute. Juventus scored another goal at the 81st minute and Higuain completed a terrible match when he received a red card just two minutes later. Prior to that, Milan played for a 1-1 draw against Betis for the Europa League and are now 2nd in their group with 7 points, one behind the top. When it comes to the Serie A, Milan are sitting at the 5th spot of the league table with 21 points, two ahead of Roma and Sassuolo and one behind Lazio. Milan have been really inconsistent on the road so far in all competitions (3-2-3), alternating between results in all seven matches. They have kept just one clean sheet on the road, but five of their matches had goals from both sides.

The two teams last met in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia last season, where after a couple of goal-less draws, it was Milan who won in the penalties. In the league matches they exchanged home wins, with Lazio winning by 1-4 in this venue but falling by 1-2 in Milan. Milan have been great in this venue over the past two decades (7-5-11), but it is Lazio who have been great here since 2010 (4-1-4).

Both teams have Europa League matches coming up later in the week, but Lazio have already qualified and Milan are playing against the weakest team in the group. Both teams have a knack for scoring and conceding goals, so I will take the Over 2.75 Goals here.

Serie A Lazio vs Milan Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals (+100)

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