The table below gives the net profit or loss when betting on a particular MLB team for an entire regular season. The results are given for each of the last eight years with ten cent lines. Sports Betting Tips: MLB Net Profit by Team 2010 – 2017.
The average profit when betting a particular baseball team over an entire regular season is about minus four units using a ten cent line. Over a regular season, there will be a few teams that are able to overcome the “juice” and be profitable whereas others will be significantly below the break-even mark. In 2017, there were twelve MLB teams that produced a profit over the entire season. Of these, Cleveland, Boston and the Yankees were the only ones that also produced a profit in 2016 as well and none of those three also produced a profit in 2015. In 2016, there were only nine teams that were plus-money, and in 2015 there were ten.
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Over the last eight seasons combined, the biggest winner has been the Baltimore Orioles. They have a regular season record of 654-642 and they were an average of +108.7 on the moneyline for a net profit of 66.93 net units. The Rangers are second with a record of 698-599 at an average line of minus 116.5 to produce a net profit of 30.25 net units. The Rangers are followed by the Nationals, which have produced a net profit of 12.22 net units this decade.
It is interesting to note that the Orioles have been the most profitable UNDER team this decade, going 583-659-50 OU for a net profit of 16.24 net units when going under the total.
Despite the Rockies’ excellent profitability in 2017, they remain the worst team to bet over the entire decade. Betting on the Rockies in every regular season game this decade would have resulted in a net loss of 109.09 net units and playing against them would have resulted in a net profit of 49.17 net units. The second biggest money-burner this decade has been the Mariners, which were 602-694 at an average line of +102.1. This produced a net loss of 101.26 units betting on them and a profit of 39.37 units playing against them.
The Astros had a stretch of three terrible seasons in a row from 2011-2013 and they are still trying to make up for it. Houston was very profitable last season, but they only moved up to third-worst this decade as a result. Since 2010, betting on the Astros would have resulted in a net loss of 86.57 net units and playing against them would have resulted in a net profit of 21.57 net units.
The Marlins are the only team in the entire table that has produced a losing season on the moneyline in all eight seasons. They are certainly unlikely to be overrated this season.
The most profitable season in the entire table was that produced by the Athletics in 2012. Oakland went 94-68 and they were an average of +109.4 on the moneyline for a net profit of 37.61 net units. Fifty-seven of their 94 wins came as an underdog that season. Note that the public thought that A’s 2012 season was a fluke, because Oakland produced a terrific profit in 2013 as well.
The next two most profitable seasons this decade were by the same team. The Orioles produced 35.28 net units in 2012 and 33.38 net units in 2014.
The worst season this decade was the Mariners’ 2010 season. They finished 61-101 while averaging +116.6 on the moneyline for a net profit of 31.55 net units when against them. They are followed by the 2012 Red Sox, which finished 69-93 laying an average of 108.5, which produced a net profit of 30.04 net unit for those fading the Red Sox the entire season. The third best team to play against this decade was last season’s Giants, which were 65-97 at an average of +109.8 on the moneyline, which was good for 28.22 net units when betting against them.
Who will be the big winners and losers this season? How agile will the bettors be when a team turns out to be significantly better or worse than forecast? Stay tuned!
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