3 key factors to improve your MLB over/under predictions
There are hundreds of stats you can use to handicap MLB baseball games. The amount of statistics can be overwhelming. I’ve boiled this article down the 4 POWER factors to consider when making your selections.
1). BaseWinner Analytics
BaseWinner Analytics uses 3 core sabermetrics to predict future performance: xFIP for pitching, Runs Created for batters, and Defensive Runs Saved for fielding.
The Vegas line is 7, BaseWinner projects only 5.9.
Is the wind blowing out? Great for an over
Air Density Index is high (65+)? Lead towards the under.
Air Density Index is low (58 and under)? The ball is going to fly!
Use this site to find the most accurate weather projections.
3). Umpire Ratings
Does the umpire have a history of calling more balls or strikes? Do games tend to have more runs of fewer runs when he is behind the plate? How many times have you seen a borderline call go one way, followed by a 3-run home run that sent the game over.
When betting totals, 1 pitch on the edge can make a big difference, so be sure your umpire has a bias towards your direction.
4). Walk Ratings
After doing a large-sample regression analysis, it turns out walks are one of the single greatest factors determining whether a game goes over or under the total. So before you place a bet, how much control does each starting pitcher have? Furthermore, how patient is each hitting team? As a whole, do they take many walks? All things to take into consideration.
STRT: Starting Pitcher Walk Rating (100 is average). Higher number means more walks (110 means 10% more walks than an average pitcher)
REL: Relief Pitching (using projected bullpen usage) Walk Rating (100 is average). Higher number means more walks.
OFF BB: Offense Walk Rating (100 is average). Higher number means more walks.
PK BB: Ballpark Walk Rating (100 is average). Higher number means more walks.
U BB: Umpire Walk Rating (100 is average). Higher number means more walks.