How do various statistics and usage rates impact performance. From a gambling standpoint, we generally look at how a team performs in the upcoming game, using the previous games or a handful of previous games data. While there is some value to this for NBA teams, during this last decade there has been an unbelievable amount of untapped data that NBA teams have started to take advantage of for in-game performance. The simplest concept of these efforts starts with this – scoring three points in a possession is better than scoring two points. When that can be done at an efficient enough rate – which it often can be – it gives the three-point shooting team a significant edge. This sounds like the most basic of concepts right now, but just five years ago that was not widely understood. The three-point shooting renaissance is upon us.
Now back to what we do best – looking at how a previous games’ performance affects the next game. We want to exam- ine how three-point shooting in one game impacts how a team performs in the next game. To do this, we will start with the most basic of parameters, how many three pointers a team attempted in their last game.
The results, found in the chart below, go back to the start of the 1995-96 season.
Let us start by stating what should be obvious. That shooting three-pointers is good for an NBA team and people realize it. When a team has taken at least 30 three-pointers in a game, they are favored on average in the next game at every single number of three-pointers attempted that is included in the chart. In fact, this is true all the way down to 20+ three-pointers attempted in the last game. The straight up records correlate with this as well. Teams that shot 30+ three pointers last game are 2293-1972 (53.8%) overall. Teams that shot more than 35 three pointers last game are 614-442 SU (58.1%). That is the equivalent of a 47.6-win team based on this one stat alone that does not look directly at any same-game stat.
NBA Betting Tips: Season Win Totals
NBA Betting Tips when wagering on Season Win Totals is the topic on this episode of Sports Betting Tips from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas. WagerTalk.com TV host Kelly Stewart talks NBA Season Win Totals betting strategy with handicapping expert Bryan Leonard and he shares some personal basketball betting tips for the recreational bettor that can be used to help when wagering on season win totals.
Of course we are more interested in the against the spread performance and looking at that column of the chart, there are promising results as well, despite these teams being favored on average. The teams that shot more than 35 three point- ers last game are 513-421-19 ATS (54.9%) when facing a team that shot no more than 35 pointers last game, eliminating any double actives. The results when looking at teams that shot more than 40 three pointers last game are even stronger at 157-119-7 ATS, covering in 56.9% of games.
There are a couple of other factors we want to examine related to this seemingly profitable system. To start with, we want to look at performance by season, because as we antidotally noted in the opening, three-point shooting has seen a major uptick in recent years. To look at how that has impacted the number of active instances, as well as to see if advanced knowledge of the importance of three pointers has caught up to this system, we look at the season by season results.
Obviously, we knew three-point shooting was up, but to see that fact laid out in this fashion is still eye opening. Between 1996-97 and 2001-02, no team shot more than 40 three-pointers in a single game. In fact, between 1995-96 and 2010-11, this system was active a total of 16 times. Last season alone, the system was active 116 times on 18 different teams. The good news is, the successful performance has not changed as information has caught up, as these teams have covered in 56.8% and 56.9% of active instances the past two years.
There are several other factors that can be examined related to this study, but an obvious one we feel would be negligent to not consider is the success of that three-point shooting in the previous game. Does it matter if a team shot so many three pointers if they do not do so successfully? To query this, we will use a few SDQL searches to group the possibe scenarios, as using a simple open-end query with “TPP” as the added parameter using the short cut for three-point percentages is not easy to navigate with three point percentages calculated to several decimal points. The results of grouping the shooting percent- ages of the performance of these teams that shot more than 40 threes last game based on their shooting percentage is below.
Looking at the results, the quality of these teams three-point shooting in their last game has very little impact. The lines shift slightly higher in these games when a team was hot with their shooting in the game, but the against the spread results are solid at every level.
Finally, let us take a quick look at how teams have gotten to improved performance in these games. To do this, we are only going to look at results from the past two years because of how many of the active instances came in the past two years. Doing so will give us an accurate baseline of how the average teams performed during this time period. Over the past two seasons, the average team scored 105.9 points per game, making 10.1 three pointers per game while shooting 36.0% from long range. The teams coming off games where they shot more than 40 threes last game and their opponent did not shot at a slightly better 36.8% clip on threes in these games. The big difference however, is that these teams made 13.5 threes in these games due too a significantly higher quantity of attempts. This led to an average points scored of 110.3 per game, a significant jump that accounts for an average margin of +3.3 points in these games.
Teams that understand efficiency carry a slight edge and maximizing three-point shooting is a huge aspect of that. It is beneficial to play on a team that was willing to take a huge quantity of three-pointers in their last game.
PLAY ON: Teams that shot more than 40 three pointers in their last game.