William Hill Odds to Win Super Bowl 54
The National Football League deadline for placing a franchise tag on any one specific player has passed. Between now and the dog days of summer there will be a number trades and free agent signings that will alter a team’s DNA. Sandwiched between the aforementioned periods the NFL draft plays a part in a franchises capability of being pedestrian or playoff worthy. William Hill Odds to Win Super Bowl 54: Mahomes 11-2.
National Football League 2019 season openers in September are still months away. However the NFL front office shuffle is still two-stepping it. The official beginning of trades and free agent signings is approaching. The adage that there is no offseason in professional sports is spot-on. Social media and the internet have forced the office suits and coaches to make a deal with the devil. Smart work combined with long hours are usual suspects in the world of big business. Understand as best one can and believe without hesitation that the company that owns Sunday, the NFL, is big business, portraying itself as “just a game.”
NFL Free Agent Gains
Does spending big without selling the farm via free agency typically offer a substantial return on investment? Will smart work combined with burning the candle at both ends result in discovering the formula for drafting the next Peyton Manning or negotiating a trade for a Khalil Mack?
Will spending large on free agent big names convert into winning big games?
The short answer is no.
The long answer is no.
And no doesn’t mean yes Big Ben.
And you too Iron Mike.
Save notable exceptions, weighing the large number of free agent signings, to the small number of uber successful purchases (think Peyton Manning or Drew Brees), history provides evidence that landing that high-profile free agent doesn’t influence a team’s season ending mark in the league standings.
NFL Free Agent Losses
Conversely, losing a big free agent without a capable replacement via the draft or an available player in the offseason market has in fact reared its ugly head for NFL clubs. I won’t outline a list of said teams and the players they lost. I will, however, push a reasonable explanation for the decline in wins in this situation. NFL teams are financially restricted from monopolizing player personnel with a league salary cap. And typically a team that loses a high-flying free agent also loses what existed as a balance in talent versus salary. In a nutshell the free agent’s number (value) of derived units formed by combining fundamental units (talent) according to the algebraic relations versus the imposed league salary cap.
For the most part when a free agent player hits the open market his fundamental unit value decreases. This is because his salary goes up, which limits his new team’s ability to attract other solid players. The team adds his talent to their roster base but typically have to dispose of a significant amount of salary from other capable players that equate to collateral damage (team strength).
NFL Free Agents signings don’t equate to more wins
In an unscientific view across the last 10-years of teams that have picked up an assumed top-10 available free agent offered evidence that the teams in question showed less than a five percent increase in overall records the following year.
The favorites, according to William Hill to win Super Bowl 54 were the best offense in the 2018 NFL regular season according to the Finn Factor adjusted effeminacy figures. The same success didn’t ring true with their defense. And the organization’s defense salary exceeds that of their offense.
- Overall cap space: $10,082,532
- Offense: $88,222,861
- Defense: $89,844,652
- Special teams: $4,080,000
There are a number of ways that the Chiefs can get creative with their 2019 salary. And as outlined in this piece the NFL is big business and teams don’t position the mentally challenged to manipulate the bottom line numbers. An example and possible scenario in the coming weeks is that KC can gain 14 million to their cap space. The team could do so by trading or releasing veteran rush end/outside linebacker Justin Houston. A result of such would save the club $15.4 million against the cap.