Super Bowl 55 Prop Report
Tampa Bay has the ability to be stubborn good versus the run. Ascertain as the sun will rise in the east you can count on HC Reid and OC Bieniemy being pass-happy this afternoon. More pass-happy than the offense typically is. Bieniemy will be calling passes early and often for the purpose of throwing the ball to set up the pass. Yes, that isn’t a typo, I did in fact state that Reid, Bieniemy, and the Kansas City offense will pass to set up the… yes… pass.
The injuries to the offensive line that has resulted in Reid’s O-Line running with backups at both left and right tackle. Season-ending injuries to Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher have put Reid in a position to hang his hat on his straight up and against the spread record when he and his staff have two weeks to prepare, off a bye per se. The Achilles injury to Fisher is considered a negative for Mahomes and his ‘mates. I will respectfully disagree.
The Fisher injury has created a negative for the Bucs rather than a positive. If former first-round pick Eric “Big Daddy” Fisher were healthy, active, and starting in his typically tackle position Mahomes and the Chiefs would be as predictable as is usual.
Defensive coordinator Bowles for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cannot count on the Reid offense being the same as it was versus Cleveland and Buffalo, in the Divisional and Conference Championship games respectively.
I have talked to, in a passionate and obsessive fashion the second half of the regular season that Kansas City was playing cat and mouse with their opponents. Reid and Mahomes trust coach Spag and the defensive staff. The offense did enough to take a comfortable lead in November and December and showed little to nothing new, out of the norm of the playbook of the last two years.
And they did so to execute a game plan that would be difficult to predict, predict, and prepare for. Reid and his coaches believed that to have the advantage in defending their Super Bowl title they would be facing a capable foe that could hold their own if handed the ROP heavy playbook of Reid. Mission accomplished.
Do not take my previous statements for more than they are. I am not saying the injury to Fisher was part of Qanon mission nor am I pushing conspiracy through my Super Bowl editorial. I am simply notifying those who will listen then believe that the offensive tackles injury made Reid’s decision, his changes, easier to sign-off on and in more ways than one gain an edge, any degree of surprise and unknown to present to a very good Bucs defense.
Expect Reid and Beiniemy to have subtle adjustments to the ratio of running to passing plays. That adjustment likely involves more motion, new motion, and a set of plays that were birthed from the new-look motion with the aim of keeping the Bucs front seven honest, and guessing.
In the first game between these two conference champions, despite having a 17 point lead from the beginning of the second quarter deep into the final stanza Kansas City ran the ball only 20 times. Furthermore, four of those were designed runs for Mahomes. The KC offense gained 87 yards on the ground in total and threw the ball 50 times.
The ratio of running plays to passing plays in the Chiefs 27-24 Week 12 victory is not exactly what I expect to see this afternoon from Mahomes and company. I expect even fewer running plays than the 16 non-quarterback ground and pound handoffs that took place at the venue that today’s game, Super Sunday 55, will be played at.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will see a carry or five in the game. The same applies to Darrel Williams and Le’Veon Bell. I expect that Reid will have a play or three for Tyreek Hill to carry the rock with a chance that Mecole Hardman finds a handoff from Mahomes or a direct snap. Also, I expect that in goal-to-goal situations from inside the three-yard line that rookie Edwards-Helaire will have the opportunity to use his skill-set in short-yardage to score and “any time touchdown
ANY TIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +150 (Fanduel)
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 29.5 yards -110 (Fanduel)
TOTAL RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 8.5 attempts -120 (Fanduel)
How good is this Tampa defensive front against the run? This season, with Vita Vea active and playing his part on the field, the Bucs allowed 2.8 yards per carry.
In this Super Bowl prop report, Drew Martin, Kevin Dolan and Teddy Covers offer their thoughts on Leonard Fournette’s rushing total, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing total, and a couple candidates for Most Valuable Player.
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