Premier League Free Play: Chelsea at Southampton

Southampton vs Chelsea Betting Preview

Wagering on a team before their Champions League match takes some guts, but soccer handicapper Nick Borrman sees too many positives in Chelsea’s form to leave them off his card tomorrow. Since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager, the Blues have five wins and a draw and have only allowed one goal in those six matches. Nick offers this thoughts on Saturday’s Premier League match between Chelsea and Southampton.

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Normally you want to avoid teams the weekend before a Champions League match and I am still weary of a possible look-ahead spot here as Chelsea takes on Atletico Madrid in a huge game on Wednesday, but the Blues are playing too well not to take a piece of them here.

Since Tuchel took over as manager for Chelsea, they settled for a draw in their first game against Wolverhampton but have since rattled off five wins in a row and have conceded just one goal in the process. Momentum and confidence can be everything to these players and the team and Tuchel will want to keep that going and concentrate on getting the win here. Not to mention they are in a battle for a top-4 spot and Champions League birth for next year so they canโ€™t afford to drop points.

Meanwhile, Southampton is in a freefall. They have lost six-straight league matches conceding 20 goals in those games. Granted, nine of those goals came in one game against Manchester United in a 9-0 loss, but still, they allowed 11 goals in their other five games while scoring just four.

On the season, Chelsea have the 2nd-best xG differential in the league at +0.79 per game while Southampton is 15th in the league with a -0.39 xG differential. Those numbers are good enough for me to take the Blues.

TAKE CHELSEA -0.75 – Line Parameter: 3% to -1.0

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional โ€˜footballโ€™ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you canโ€™t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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