Europa League Free Play: Hoffenheim vs Molde

Hoffenheim vs Molde Betting Preview

Betting top-tier teams in the Europa League can be tough because of the lineup changes and questions about motivation. But when you’ve got two hungry teams that want to advance in the competition, Europa League matches can be some of the most exciting competitions in the sport. Soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Thursday’s match between Germany’s Hoffenheim and Norway’s Molde.

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These teams played to a 3-3 draw last week, which was remarkable considering how much Hoffenheim controlled that game. They put up 26 shots with 13 on goal compared to just eight shots with four on goal for Molde. Hoffenheim generated 4.67 xG, which was the highest of any team in the Europa League last week. That tally was nearly three goals more than Molde, who did play well offensively and mustered 1.76 xG. But the defense is why I’m fading them here.

That draw was a great result for Molde considering it was their first competitive game in two months, which certainly showed defensively. Norway’s top league is in-between their seasons as they don’t play during the coldest months of the year due to their northern location. I think they will once again struggle on the back end as they just don’t have their game speed right now. Meanwhile, Hoffenheim are coming in off another great performance over the weekend, crushing Werder Bremen 4-0 at home, and while I don’t expect that score to repeat here, they should be able to cover this number with at least a two-goal win at home.

TAKE HOFFENHEIM -1.5 – Line Parameter: 4% to -1.75

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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