AS Roma did a solid job in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 against FC Porto. They did win at home but conceded a late goal that could prove to be catastrophic. FC Porto are now taking this tie at home on Wednesday, looking for even a slim win. AS Roma know that they will have to play smart here. But this is going to be a very tough match for both sides.
Date/Time: 3-6-2019, 15:00 EST
Spread: AS Roma +0.5
Total: 2.75 Goals
FC Porto were not very good in the first leg but did their duty. They only had a single shot on target in the first half. And they went down 0-2 with goals inside a six-minute span. But they scored a valuable away goal at the 79th minute. Despite the 1-2 loss, FC Porto can now go through with a small 0-1 win. But they haven’t had much luck in Champions League knockout matches lately, going win-less in their last six (0-5-1). Their overall record in this round is W3 L7 and they have won only one of their last five ties. FC Porto have won five of their nine two-legged ties against Serie A sides. And they have lost just one of their last eight home matches against Italian opposition (3-1-4).
AS Roma were pretty solid in the first leg, especially on the offensive end. They created a lot of chances but found two goals from youngster Zaniolo (70th, 76th). They did also concede a goal though, and they need to be really careful in this second leg. Their record in the round of 16 stands at W3 L3. They had lost five consecutive matches in this round before beating Shakhtar Donetsk last season. AS Roma have not been good on the road in European matches, winning just one of their last eight (1-6-1). They had won three consecutive two-legged ties against Portuguese teams before losing to FC Porto two seasons ago (W3 L3 total).
The two teams last met in the Champions League qualifiers in 2016/17. After a 1-1 draw in this venue FC Porto went on to destroy AS Roma by 3-0 on the road. FC Porto have been excellent at home this season and can certainly win this one. AS Roma are really strong up front but their defense is pretty weak.
FC Porto will try to take this slowly in search of a single qualifying goal. But AS Roma will search for a goal that will give them some operating room. FC Porto got some key players back from injuries and are stronger than the first leg. I will take the home win here, with the Over 2.75 Goals also being a nice alternative. Also look out for the 1-2 correct score in favor of FC Porto (+735).
Champions League FC Porto vs AS Roma Prediction: FC Porto -0.5 (+103)
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