The Valero Texas Open is played at TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, Texas.  It is a 7,522 yard, Par 72 course designed by the Aussie Greg Norman.  This course has a ton of length, especially on the Par 3’s and Par 5’s.  Bombers off the tee will have a slight advantage here this weekend.  The weather should play a factor this week. There are a few days where storms are in the forecast.  This course tends to get very windy, so be on the lookout for the weather reports.  Wind can really throw a wrench into some of these matchups so be aware.  The amount of rain that they are supposed to get will definitely soften up the greens making it a little easier to reach the greens in regulation.  Good putters also have nice advantage on these Bermuda greens.  Here are some match ups that I am looking to play this week:

Aaron Baddeley +100 vs. Keegan Bradley

Aaron Baddeley is coming into the event in good form, finishing 9th in last week’s event.  He is very inconsistent with his ball striking, but he is an excellent putter.  He also putts well on Bermuda greens which are the greens that you will see on this course.  He has a good course history at San Antonio on top of everything else.  He has played this event 4 times and made the cut in all 4.  Keegan Bradley on the other hand is not a good putter on any surface.  He hits the ball far which should help him out here, but he is not in good form and has only played this course one time.  He finished 9th the only time he played this event, but that was back in 2011 when he was not having the putting woes like he is now.

Luke List -110 vs. Hunter Mahan

Luke List is a name that you will start to hear more and more.  He has been playing very consistent golf of late, and he hits the ball a long way.  List is coming into the event in very good form making the cut 5 of his last 6 events.   This play is also a fade on Hunter Mahan.  Until he starts to play decent consistently, you will continue to see his name as a fade on these matchups.  He has started to make some cuts, but he has not finished any better than 53rd in his last 7 events.  His game is not good enough to allow him to string  together 4 solid rounds right now.

Cameron Percy -110 vs. Camillo Villegas

Cameron Percy has not played very many events this year.  He finished 26th at the Puerto Rico Open which has some similarities to this course in terms of wind.  He has plays San Antonio very well.  He has 2 top 25s in his 3 starts here.  Villegas is very much a wild card.  He does not play consistent golf which makes him a difficult player to fade or bet on.  I think it is safe this time to fade him due to his poor course history here.  Don’t be surprised if shoots a low score and is the 1st round leader, but we are willing to take that risk this time.

Chez Reavie -120 vs. Keegan Bradley

Chez Reavie is playing great golf right now.  He is a very solid ball striker who is on top of his game currently.  He does not have a good course history here at all, but I am willing to take that risk based on his current form.  This is also just as much of a fade of Keegan Bradley as it is a play on Chez Reavie.  If you want to know why I am fading Keegan, see above post in his matchup against Aaron Baddeley.  You may also feel free to check older posts that I have filled out and I am sure I was fading Keegan Bradley on a lot of those also.

Leans that I am looking at:

Chez Reavie -135 vs. Hunter Mahan   (looking to play if price drops)

Jhonattan Vegas -105 vs. KJ Choi

Whee Kim +105 vs. Zac Blair

 

Possible futures of golfers with some value:

Brooks Koepka 21-1

Billy Horschel 33-1

Kevin Chappell 42-1

Russel Henley 50-1

Aaron Baddeley 85-1

Patrick Rodgers 90-1

Andrew Loupe 165-1

*Note:  For those who use Bovada for golf plays, I have only been able to locate 3 matchup plays so far.  I will keep looking for some matchups, but out of the 3 that are listed right now I would pass on them.

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Brock Downs

    Brock has been betting golf successfully for the past 3 seasons. Through advanced statistics and metrics he has been finding matchups to take advantage of. Under the handle Doubledown23 has recently been posting plays and leans that are hitting at a crazy rate. Check out the results for yourself on the forums. You won’t be disappointed!

    Brock Downs has 11 posts and counting. See all posts by Brock Downs

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